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BOJ Meeting On June 16–17
According to Hayes, if the BOJ holds off on reducing its bond purchases and instead brings back some markets will get a big push. Right now, the bank is doing what’s called On July 31, 2024, it cut government bond buys by 400 billion yen a quarter. That started in August 2024. The BOJ plans to check how that’s working at this month’s meeting.Shifts In Bond Buying Plans
Based on reports from unnamed sources, some BOJ officials want to slow down the cuts even more. They’re talking about dropping bond purchases by 200 billion yen per quarter starting in April 2027. That would mean less money leaving the market. It’s a sign they’re ready to be more cautious if economic data weakens at home.I don’t think ordinary Japanese plebes would agree. If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly. LFG — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes)
Bitcoin Reacts To Rising Yields
hit a high of $112,000 on May 22. That came just two days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield jumped to 3.185% on May 20, 2025. Traders saw that spike in long-term yields as a warning sign about Japan’s debt load. Some big investors then looked to Bitcoin as a place free from government default risk.As of today, the market cap of cryptocurrencies stood at $3.38 trillion. Chart:
Future Risks And Hopes
André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe said that if yields keep rising, Bitcoin could head toward $200,000. He pointed out that Bitcoin has no central authority that could fail. But other risks loom. The US , the European Central Bank and other big players are all on different paths. Any BOJ move would travel through global currency markets and could face pushback from regulators.What Comes Next
Market watchers will focus on the wording in the BOJ statement. They’ll watch for phrases like “flexible approach” or hints that the bank could act again if needed. They’ll also look for any shift in how much the BOJ will let longer-term yields move. If the bank gives itself more room on the yield curve, that could count as a small form of easing. For traders in Tokyo, New York and beyond, that language will matter. A surprise tilt back to easing could pour fresh yen into global markets. That might send Bitcoin and other risk assets flying, at least for a while. But if the BOJ only eases its pace of tightening, the boost could be modest. Either way, all eyes are on June 16–17.Featured image from Twenty20, chart from TradingView
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